A fragile ceasefire between Iran, the U.S., and Israel may have paused the fighting in the Middle East, but the political consequences for congressional Republicans are far from over.
Indeed, Republicans now face an even tougher environment heading into the midterms than the already challenging one they were facing before the war began.
Polling on the war shows a nation that is divided but has grown steadily more negative as the conflict has dragged on.
A recent poll from Cygnal found that 47 percent of likely voters support military action against Iran whereas 48 percent do not — a 7-point net increase in opposition from Cygnal’s March poll.
A separate Economist-YouGov poll shows more broadly that 34 percent of registered voters approved the war, with 53 percent disapproving.
Although Americans will sometimes tolerate the costs of military action when they believe the mission is necessary, clear and likely to succeed, they are far less willing to do so when they do not understand the objective — which is the administration’s central political problem.
Trump and his team never effectively explained why the U.S. went to war, what success would look like, or how long the country should expect economic consequences.
The administration has struggled in its messaging consistently leaving the public with mixed messages and shifting rationales, and the polling bears this out.
The Economist-YouGov poll shows that 57 percent have little or no understanding of what Trump’s goals in the war were.
Further, Trump has made contradictory statements throughout, ranging from the state of Iran’s nuclear program, regime change goals — and criteria for “regime change” — to different claims over the destruction of Iran’s conventional capabilities.
Moreover, negotiations over a final deal, and the associated military and economic tensions, may go well into the summer, putting them up against the final stretch of midterms.
At the same time, Iran’s undoubted ownership of the Strait of Hormuz means that Americans may continue paying the price regardless of the ceasefire.
According to Amrita Sen, the founder of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, the ongoing situation in the strait means Americans may pay roughly $5 per gallon this summer — and even more in states like California.
Should Sen’s prediction come to pass, Trump will find that any expediency in wrapping up the war before midterms was for naught.
Higher prices and inflation will continue to stoke anger at Trump and Republicans, eroding support in the polls and eventually at the ballot box.
Quite simply, it is hard to see how an unpopular president — Trump’s approval rating is 15 points underwater according to RealClearPolitics — will retain a razor thin congressional majority.
Likewise, should prices remain elevated into the fall, Democrats’ advertisements will certainly remind voters of the reasons.
To that end, while Trump is unrivaled at spinning even negative developments to his advantage, it’s hard to see how Iran reminding everyone that that Hormuz is open signifies a win for America.
That vital waterway was open before the war, and Trump’s refusal to reopen it means that after six weeks of combat, the achievement being touted by the White House is simply that a waterway that was previously open is, again, open.
The administration’s failure to explain its reasons and goals means voters are less willing to deal with its impacts.
The data shows this broader movement: On the eve of the war, Democrats had a 4-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot, per RealClearPolitics’ aggregator.
Now, that sits at 6 points, a seemingly small change but a trend that will likely continue.
Finally, Trump will have to deal with the fallout in his own coalition.
Self-identified “MAGA Republicans” remain supportive — 69 percent support in the Economist-YouGov poll — but there is a brewing split.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a traditional Republican, put Vice President Vance on notice that he — naming the vice president specifically — must explain what the war achieved.
On the other side, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) has said that she will not support supplemental funding for the war.
Ultimately, Trump may hope that a ceasefire puts the war in the rearview, but politically, that seems unlikely.
The public has moved against the conflict as the administration failed to articulate a persuasive and consistent rationale for it, and the economic aftershocks may continue for a while.
