The obvious is in plain site,

Darth Omar said:
Meanwhile, going forward, we have learned that states and regions can get to ‘post peak’ without the kind of grotesque, draconian, economy smothering and jobs killing measures that were taken earlier in the year.
Election year politics aside, that is what winning looks like.
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good. we can't absorb any more "grotesque, draconian, economy smothering and jobs killing measures"
Hopefully Florida is on the way down
 
Phantasmal said:
They don’t even know if there is herd immunity, how did New York achieve it? You’re saying 60% of their population was infected?
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There are two clear instances where herd immunity remains a very plausible explanation: NY and Sweden.

We don’t know how much of either population has been affected because there haven’t been enough seroprevalence studies. The ones that have been done consistently show that a much higher percentage of the population has been infected/exposed to COVID than what was assumed.

It seems to explain some things.
 
Grajonca said:
You'll like this, Nic Lewis is a climate scientist and is well acquainted with statistical analysis.

https://judithcurry.com/2020/07/27/...-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/
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A key reason for variability in susceptibility to COVID-19 given exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing is that the immune systems of a substantial proportion (35% to 80%) of unexposed individuals have T-cells, circulating antibodies or other components that are cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 and can be expected to provide substantial resistance to it.[6] [7] [8] [9] Such components likely arise from past exposure to common cold or other coronaviruses, or to influenza.[10] [from prior link]
_______________

Cross reactive immune components explains why so many people have mild infections and/or are asymptomatic AND it would lower the herd immunity threshold—significantly.

See, not all COVID news has to be bad and gloomy lol.
 
Darth Omar said:
There are two clear instances where herd immunity remains a very plausible explanation: NY and Sweden.

We don’t know how much of either population has been affected because there haven’t been enough seroprevalence studies. The ones that have been done consistently show that a much higher percentage of the population has been infected/exposed to COVID than what was assumed.

It seems to explain some things.
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I’ve seen a estimate of 25% infected, do you have evidence it is higher?
 
Phantasmal said:
I’ve seen a estimate of 25% infected, do you have evidence it is higher?
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There were half a dozen or so preliminary studies done months ago. Stanford was one and it showed a much higher than anticipated seroprevalence. But there’s cross-reactive immune components to consider; we don’t know how accurate the tests are and etc. IOW, it’s an open question as far as direct evidence goes.

But the fact these areas having an explosion of infections followed by a steep decrease in numbers follows an established pattern in epidemics—which is typically explained via herd immunity.

Speaking of tests, do we know the false positive rate in COVID PCR tests? All these states are having ridiculous case numbers but deaths aren’t tracking like they were in April/March.

How do we know we aren’t stuck in an endless feedback loop?
 
Darth Omar said:
There were half a dozen or so preliminary studies done months ago. Stanford was one and it showed a much higher than anticipated seroprevalence. But there’s cross-reactive immune components to consider; we don’t know how accurate the tests are and etc. IOW, it’s an open question as far as direct evidence goes.

But the fact these areas having an explosion of infections followed by a steep decrease in numbers follows an established pattern in epidemics—which is typically explained via herd immunity.

Speaking of tests, do we know the false positive rate in COVID PCR tests? All these states are having ridiculous case numbers but deaths aren’t tracking like they were in April/March.

How do we know we aren’t stuck in an endless feedback loop?
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There were over 2,000 deaths yesterday, are you aware of that?
 
Darth Omar said:
A key reason for variability in susceptibility to COVID-19 given exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing is that the immune systems of a substantial proportion (35% to 80%) of unexposed individuals have T-cells, circulating antibodies or other components that are cross-reactive to SARS-CoV-2 and can be expected to provide substantial resistance to it.[6] [7] [8] [9] Such components likely arise from past exposure to common cold or other coronaviruses, or to influenza.[10] [from prior link]
_______________

Cross reactive immune components explains why so many people have mild infections and/or are asymptomatic AND it would lower the herd immunity threshold—significantly.

See, not all COVID news has to be bad and gloomy lol.
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antibodies and killer T-cell count are what fight it
Older and at risk are usually not at full levels. They need shuttering
 
Hello archives,

archives said:
New York, who had as many as a thousand deaths a day in March when the pandemic first appeared, yesterday had five deaths from COVID, seven the day before. Their infection rate is one percent. Florida, who wasn’t hit with the virus back in March, had 124 deaths yesterday, with an infection rate averaging between ten and thirteen percent

Common sense dictates that New York did, and is still doing, the right thing, while Florida the exact opposite, and what is the common denominator, Trump, one State ignored Trump, the other couldn’t act fast enough to make him happy.

As I said, obvious
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Pretty hard to try to spin those kinds of numbers.
 
Hello Nordberg,

Nordberg said:
Cuomo was berated for forcing New Yorkers to do the right thing. Florida is doing the opposite. It is following Trump's directives to death and destructioon.
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DeSantis was berated by The Villages for even CONSIDERING doing the right thing. He caved, so he is rapidly on his way to being another one-term wonder.
 
Hello Darth,

Darth Omar said:
When was herd immunity ruled out?

I want to see the randomized seroprevalence studies from NY.
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The numbers don't lie. They are pretty clear.

5 million cases. 330 million people.

5/330 *100% = 1.5%

1.5% of America is or has been infected with COVID-19.
 
Darth Omar said:
How do you spin the 53 studies demonstrating the efficacy of HCQ?

And why does it seem like you don’t want it to work?
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Broken record
Oh, lawdy, give it up already. If it was effective, the doctors would be using it. There are far better alternatives with not as many side effects.
 
Phantasmal said:
There were over 2,000 deaths yesterday, are you aware of that?
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number of deaths when compared with number of positive tests continues to decline......does that not suggest to you that for example, New York had far more people that had Covid than they knew at the time?......
 
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